Retail sales in the U.S. increased by 1.4% in October

Retail sales in the U.S. increased by 1.4% in October
Tuesday, November 17, 2009 12:03 AM
The volume of retail sales in the U.S. grew in October at 1.4% due to higher car sales.
Sales of cars increased in the reporting period to 7.4%. Retail sales excluding auto sales rose in October at 0.2%. Economists had expected growth of this indicator on 0,3%. Sales of durable goods excluding automobiles were quite weak. In turn, sales of consumer goods in general have shown growth.
Growth of retail sales exceeded 1%, which was expected by experts. However, the October increase was smoothed negative value for the previous month, which was revised in the direction of a significant reduction.
Producer prices have fallen, but consumer prices are unlikely to decrease
Tuesday, November 17, 2009 12:02 AM
Today went Rosstat data, according to which producer prices of industrial production in Russia in January-October 2009 increased by 13,9% and inflation at the consumer market was 8.1%. Left commented on the financial data analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich.
Producer prices are a leading indicator of prices in the consumer market. This variability is reflected in consumer inflation with a delay. Retail players are often passed on to consumers the increased cost burden on the purchase of goods. But at the same time, as seen from the figures this year, it happens to a much lesser extent, because not only raw materials included in the price of goods and services.
In the conditions of Russia is somewhat different: if the prices of industrial goods and services vary greatly with the cycles of economic activity, the consumer prices, at best, do not grow or equal to zero. Month to month it strongly influences the dynamics, distorting it. So, by October last year, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, producers cut prices by 1,8% (in spite of the accumulated YTD growth of 13.9%), while consumer prices rose by 9,7%.
Very telling in this regard in January this year, when producer prices fell more than 3%, while the consumer rose by 2,0%. Since Russia's economy went in the direction of growth, and the government is planning greater spending for November and December, it most likely will increase consumer prices by 0,8-1,0% per month (the more so that producer prices rose consistently from February to September). This is historically the standard inflation rate for these months.
This year we are likely to get consumer prices by 10% per year. Inflation next year is likely to remain at 10-12% rather than 7 - 8% projected by the government.
Annual inflation in the euro area in October at the level of forecasts
Tuesday, November 17, 2009 12:00 AM
According to final data of the EU statistical agency Eurostat, the annual consumer price index for the euro area amounted to -0,1% in October compared with -0.3% in the previous month. A year earlier the rate of inflation in the eurozone reached 3.2%. In monthly terms, the consumer price index for October increased by 0,2%.
Annual consumer price index excluding prices for food, tobacco, alcohol and fuel (main index) was 1.2% for the reporting period. The value of the meet analysts' forecasts.
Mizuho holds bearish forecast for the dollar / yen
Monday, November 16, 2009 6:27 AM
As the currency analysts Mizuho, all indicators on daily charts the dollar / yen indicate bearish sentiment couples. The bank believes that trade within the formation of a "triangle", which is now the pair will soon end, and the dollar / yen falls dramatically to the key support level of 87.00, and then to a level of 85.00 in the week. As a strategy for bank analysts prefer to sell on the best exchange rate, reinforcing the position at 90.00, with a stop above 90.75 and short-term goals of 89.29/18 and 88.25/88.00. At the moment pair dollar / yen is at around 89.47.
BNP Paribas recommends buying euro / franc
Monday, November 16, 2009 6:26 AM
According to currency analysts BNP Paribas, the interest of the Swiss National Bank to currency intervention is likely to weaken, as the restoration of the Swiss economy is gaining momentum. However, consider a bank, in the case of a verbal intervention by the Central Bank of Switzerland, the reaction of pair euro / franc, which is now closer to the bottom of the range, can be quite significant. Thus, reducing the euro / franc at 1.5080 area in the bank is seen as a good opportunity to buy a pair. Currently, the euro / franc is trading at around 1.5090.
UBS recommended buying the dollar / yen
Monday, November 16, 2009 6:26 AM
As the currency analysts UBS, the Minister of Finance of Japan Fuji said that he was satisfied that the yield on Japanese government bonds again began to decline. As you know, since, as Fuji joined as finance minister, his views on the dollar / yen has changed - at the bank believe that Fuji and his adviser Goten would not tolerate further strengthening the national currency. Bank analysts also note concerns regarding the sustainability of the state budget in Japan, and believe that in such circumstances, the dollar / yen should buy, not sell. At the moment pair dollar / yen is trading at 89.54.